Ranking UCL Top Contenders After Matchday 2

The Champions League league phase has been surprisingly entertaining and after two matchdays I’m starting to enjoy it more than the original group phase. There were some absolutely fantastic matches this weekend including a 10-man Juventus beating Leipzig, Aston Villa upsetting Bayern, Arsenal topping the Parisians, and some absolute goal fests.

Let’s look into the top 5 teams so far and see why they can win it, and why they can’t.

So far here is the league phase table:

For what it’s worth here were the 10 → 6 rankings I didn’t dive into but probably have just as good of a chance as # 5 Barcelona.

• Atalanta

• Aston Villa

• Inter Milan

• Liverpool

• Bayer Leverkusen

5. Barcelona

Why they can win it:

Hansi Flick has taken an injured and very young Barcelona squad and has them on top of La Liga through the first weeks of matches.

The team is being led by veterans Lewandowski, Raphinha, and Iñigo Martinez, but many young players are coming through and performing extremely well such as Lamine Yamal, Marc Casadó, and Pau Cubarsí.

They are scoring a ton of goals playing Flick's high-intensity system with an average of 3 goals per match.

Also, Lamine Yamal might already be one of the best players in the world and doesn’t seem phased by any pressure of only being 17.

Why they won’t:

The squad is super young.

An average age of about 24.5 years old while many players are making their debuts either in the first team or just the Champions League.

The team is also plagued with injuries, so until those starters come back we won’t know just how good this team is, especially in the defensive unit.

4. Bayern

Why they can win it:

When this team gets going they can score goals, and lots of them. We saw that when they thrashed Dinamo Zagreb by slotting NINE GOALS past them. They also put six past Holstein and five past Werder Bremen this season already.

Squad depth is a key part of any Champions League winning team and Bayern has that as well with players like Koman and Sané who aren’t guaranteed starters and at most clubs they probably would be.

Why they won’t:

It’s going to be hard in my opinion for a manager with his first “enterprise club” experience to take a team into the late stages of a season and compete for the title this year. We saw this play out as Unai Emery’s Aston Villa beat Bayern in match day 2.

The goalkeeping has also been questionable this season. Bayern’s expected goals against numbers have been very good, but they still have been letting in goals.

I’m not sure if it’s Neuer getting older or what but it might be something to watch out for.

3. Manchester City

Why they can win it:

Erling Haaland.

Manchester City has probably the most prolific striker in the world right now. 11 goals in 9 matches so far this season and he doesn’t seem like he will slow down.

I see this Manchester City side being in a lot of high-scoring matches, especially against stronger opponents. If City want to compete for the title, they need Haaland to be firing on all cylinders.

Why they won’t:

Rodri’s knee injury is a big blow. He was my favorite to win the Balon D’or after his impressive league and Euros campaign this past year, but now there’s a pretty big hole in the midfield.

I’m not sure Kovacic can be the replacement they need and Gundogan usually plays better if he is higher up the pitch. So how City handles that will probably make or break their season.

2. Real Madrid

Why they can win it:

The title holders are top to bottom the most talented team in the world. There’s not a single hole in this team talent-wise. It’s a nice problem to have as a coach when you have to bench Arda Guler and Endrick because the players ahead of them are just as good or better.

They have the experience and the talent to take them very far and win the whole thing again.

Plus they have some of that secret voodoo dark magic that they seem to always have in the Champions League.

Why they won’t:

Right now, it seems like they almost have too many superstars, and all of them are trying to play the same position. I believe they’ll figure it out, but it’s looked underwhelming thus far. Especially coming off a bad week of a draw in the Madrid derby and a loss at Lille.

Mbappé is also slightly underperforming his expected goals numbers as he has 6 goals in La Liga and Champions League but 8.2 xG.

Once they figure it out, it might be game over for everyone else.

1. Arsenal

Why they can win it:

They say defense wins championships and this might end up being the case with this Arsenal squad.

Saliba and Magalhães are one of the best duos in the world right now, and some would argue the best. David Raya has been very good this year as well making some incredible saves.

They have played a more defensive style against top teams which sometimes is unusual for a dominant team but can work. The amount of chances other teams are getting is actually quite low which is a good sign of a solid defensive unit.

We can see how well they do at limiting chances from the PSG match wher they held PSG to only .4 expected goals.

Why they won’t:

The Premier League.

Arsenal have been trying to dethrone Manchester City for the past couple of years and honestly, this looks like the year to do it.

I think there is going to come a point in ~ March/April when Arsenal is in the Champions League knockouts and the same week plays a match that would catalyst them to winning the Premier League and Arteta will prioritize the Premier League.

Those are some of my favorites to win after what we’ve seen a month into the season. Who do you think has impressed and could end up winning it?